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Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target
by Robert Duff in NFL Football
Updated Nov 22, 2023 · 6:41 AM PST
Jan 8, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys at the line of scrimmage during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY SportsIn the Week 12 NFL picks against the spread, the Philadelphia Eagles are displaying the best straight up (9-1) and ATS (6-2-2) records in the leagueThe Carolina Panthers (1-7-2) continue to be the NFL’s worst ATS team this seasonAll of the Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and early lines to target are outlined in the story below
Entering into the Week 12 NFL picks against the spread, the fall of 1-2 is ongoing. This is the name that’s been chosen to designate my utter inability to pick teams capable of covering this season. Again, it was a perfect fit for my imperfect Week 11 selections.
The Detroit Lions have failed to cover three times all season long. Two of them came when I backed the Lions to cover.
Two weeks ago, I was picking the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover and they got trashed by the 49ers. In Week 11, I went with those underdog covering dynamos the Tennessee Titans to get the job done at Jacksonville. Instead, they got thrashed by the Jaguars.
Thankfully, the Minnesota Vikings managed to cover in a one-point loss at Denver, leaving me to again prove that it’s easy to come out 1-2 when you’re picking three.
This week’s gonna be different, right? Let’s look forward to the NFL lines for the Week 12 ATS picks.
Going to Indianapolis to face the Colts as 2.5-point underdogs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS as an away underdog this season. The Minnesota Vikings have covered in six straight games as they play host to the Chicago Bears on MNF. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints, a 1-point pick at Atlanta, have covered in just three of the last 10 games as the road chalk.
Now, let’s check out all the best early bets in the Week 12 ATS picks.
Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons | NO -1 | ATL | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Indianapolis Colts | IND -2.5 | TB | 1 |
| Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings | MIN -3.5 | MIN | 1 |
Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Vikings.
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NFL ATS Picks 1: Buccaneers Corral Colts
On the one hand, Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS over the last nine games. However, the Colts are 3-7 in the last 10 as the home chalk and 8-12 ATS in their last 20 as a home favorite.
Tampa Bay has proven to be a dynamic underdog play this season. The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS as the betting underdog.
NFL ATS Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-110), 1 unit
NFL ATS Picks 2: Saints Are Terrible Road Favorites
Going on the road, New Orleans doesn’t do well when giving the points. The Saints are 3-6-1 in their last 10 games as the away favorite.
Running back from bye 😃 pic.twitter.com/kkQJr8OyN0
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 20, 2023
Atlanta deals when well-rested. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming back from their bye week.
NFL ATS Picks: Atlanta Falcons +1 (-115), 1 unit
2024-25 NFL Win Totals: Best Over/Under Odds for All 32 TeamsRead More
NFL ATS Picks 3: Vikings Rebound vs Bears
Straight up, Minnesota has won 10 of its last 18 games as the betting choice. The Vikings have also covered in the past six games they’ve played.
As a born and raised Chicago Bears fan, the play of former Vol QB Josh Dobbs on… the Vikings… has gotten my attention. Sometimes, a tough decision needs to be made. One loyalty must win out over the other. I’ve made my choice. #Skol #VFL #GBO
photo: @StarTribune pic.twitter.com/Vk4PJ1svrf
— Christopher Gabriel (@CGProgram) November 14, 2023
Chicago has lost 12 divisional games in a row SU. The Bears are also 3-12 ATS through their past 15 games facing NFC North clubs.
NFL ATS Picks: Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-105), 1 unit
NFL ATS records: 11-21-1
Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks
Lions (-7.5) vs Packers: Detroit is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 divisional gamesCowboys (-11) vs Commanders: Dallas is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 home games49ers (-7) vs Seahawks: San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games against AFC West squadsDolphins (-10) vs Jets: The Jets are in free fall and Miami is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 against themSteelers (-1) vs Bengals: With offensive coordinator Matt Canada fired, look for Pittsburgh’s offense to be giving Cincinnati some new looksPanthers (+4) vs Titans: It’s Bryce Young vs Will Levis and Levis is giving the #1 overall pick in the draft a 4-point head startPatriots (-3) vs Giants: Two dreadful teams, but at least New England is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 as the away chalkTexans (+1.5) vs Jaguars: Houston has already beaten Jacksonville once this season and the Texas are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 as the betting underdogBroncos (-2.5) vs Browns: Denver has won four in a row. Cleveland is 6-13-1 ATS in the past 20 games following a victoryRams (-1) vs Cardinals: Arizona opened as a 1-point pick in this game before the line moved. It was the first time in 20 games that the Cardinals were favoredRaiders (+9) vs Chiefs: Kansas City hasn’t been effective covering large spreads, going 6-8 ATS in the past 14 games when favored by a TD or moreBills (+3) vs Eagles: Buffalo ended a six-game ATS skid last week. Will Philly have a letdown following an emotional win over KC?Ravens (-3.5) vs Chargers: LA is just a poorly-coached team. Almost every week, the Chargers find ways to lose. And they are 1-9 in the past 10 as a home underdog
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