Ole Miss vs Georgia Odds, Spread & Picks – College Football Week 11

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck (15) warms up before the start of a game against Missouri.The #9 Ole Miss Rebels visit the #2 Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday, Nov. 11, at 7 pm ETUGA is heavily favored, but the point spread is moving towards Ole MissSee the Ole Miss vs Georgia odds, spread, picks, and predictions

A pivotal game for the College Football Playoff is on the NCAAF Week 11 schedule as the #2 Georgia Bulldogs (9-0, 6-0 home, 2-6-1 ATS) welcome the #9 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1, 2-1 away, 6-2-1 ATS) to Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA, at 7:00 pm ET.

The Bulldogs remain double-digit home favorites over the Rebels, but the line is moving in the Ole Miss direction after opening at UGA -11.5.

Ole Miss vs Georgia Odds

As of Saturday afternoon, the Ole Miss vs Georgia spread was sitting at 10.5 in the Week 11 college football odds. The moneyline, which opened at -530/+390 in UGA’s favor, had narrowed to -430/+328. The game total is on the move, as well, currently at 58 after opening at 59.

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Odds as of Nov. 11, 2023, on the Caesars Sportsbook app. New users can claim the Caesars promo for November to wager on Ole Miss vs Georgia.

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The Bulldogs (+260) remain neck-and-neck with Michigan (+217) in the national championship odds. Ole Miss is still on the board, but at +19500, have just a 0.51% implied win probability.

Georgia Survives Tough Test from Missouri

After routing rival Florida in Jacksonville (43-20) in Week 9, UGA survived a slugfest with Missouri (30-21) in Week 10.  The Tigers’ 21 points tied the most that the Georgia defense has surrendered this season. Missouri also gained 363 yards of offense on the day – compared to 385 for Georgia – the most UGA has allowed this season. Missouri and Georgia went into halftime tied 10-10 before the Bulldogs took control with two third-quarter touchdowns.

Last week’s nine-point win over Mizzou as 14.5-point favorites marked the sixth time this season that Georgia failed to cover the spread. Their only ATS wins came against Kentucky (51-13 as 14.5-point favorites) and Florida (43-20 as 14-point favorites).

QB Carson Beck is finally among the top-five favorites in the Heisman odds but, at +1360 on average, is still considered a longshot compared to favorites Michael Penix Jr (+148) and Bo Nix (+196).

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Ole Miss Runs SEC Win Streak to Five Games

After a 24-10 road loss at Alabama, Ole Miss has rattled off five straight conference wins, including a 55-49 shootout over then-#13 LSU and last week’s 38-35 victory over Texas A&M. Quarterback Jaxson Dart now has the 11th-best passer rating in the FBS (168.5), averaging 274.1 passing yards per game with 16 touchdowns and just four picks in nine starts. The junior has shown solid growth compared to last season, upping his completion percentage from 62.4 to 65.6, and significantly decreasing the turnovers (11 interceptions in 2022). His

Dart is, of course, supplemented by an exceptional run game that’s averaging 256.6 yards per game, third-most in the country. Former SMU Mustang RB Ulysses Bentley IV (388 yards) has provided a nice complement to standout sophomore Quinshon Judkins (793 yards, 12 TDs), who racked up 1,567 yards and 16 majors as a freshman.

While Ole Miss’ 14-point loss to Alabama as seven-point road underdogs is concerning on the surface, that setback was closer than the final score suggests. Ole Miss held a 7-6 lead at halftime and the total yardage wound up 356-301 in Alabama’s favor.

The Rebel defense is highly suspect. In addition to the 49-point outing against LSU, the unit also gave up 35 to Texas A&M at home last week. Overall, they sit mid-pack in both yards allowed (379.8 per game) and points allowed (24.2 per game). But they have also played a considerably tougher schedule than Georgia to date. Both Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M all rate higher in the the S&P rankings than any team Georgia has played this season.

Ole Miss vs Georgia Predictions

This line shouldn’t be in double-ps. The Georgia defense remains top-ten in scoring (15.7 PPG, seventh) and yards (282.2 YPG, ninth) but it has taken a step back compared to each of its last two national championship-winning seasons. The Bulldogs held opponents to just 9.5 points against in 2021 and 12.8 in 2022.  That number is up a field goal this season despite playing zero games against teams rated in the top 20 of the S&P.

Now they face, without a doubt, the best offense they have seen all season, arguably one of the best in the entire country.

Just like the Missouri vs Georgia game, I expect the outcome here to remain in question throughout.

Ole Miss vs UGA pick: Ole Miss Rebels +10.5 (-110)

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