Bills vs Bengals SGP Picks for Sunday Night Football

October 29, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY SportsThe Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals round out today’s NFL slate on Sunday Night FootballBuffalo and Cincinnati are a combined 6-9 over/under on the seasonSee the best Bills vs Bengals same-game parlay for Week 9

The Buffalo Bills (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals (4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) on Sunday Night Football on Nov. 5 and oddsmakers have pegged the game with the highest over/under on the board in the Week 9 NFL odds. But both teams have been cashing more unders this season, with the Bengals at 3-4 O/U and Bills 3-5, and today’s Bills vs Bengals SGP starts with a wager on a relatively slow start.

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Same-Game Parlay Picks

The first leg of this BUF/CIN same-game parlay is under 24.5 points in the first half. It continues with a plus-money play on Josh Allen staying under 1.5 TD passes, and finishes with Tee Higgins recording four or fewers catches on the day.

After whiffing on my first four SGPs this NFL season, I have cashed the last two at +442 and +431 to get back in the black for the season, overall (+4.73 units on one-unit wagers).

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Buffalo vs Cincinnati Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: First-Half Under 24.5

The Bills have been playing some sluggish first halves of late, at least on offense. Over the past four weeks, Buffalo games have averaged just 16.8 first-half points per game, and only one of the four went over today’s first-half total of 24.5. Bengal games are averaging more but the last two have landed on 24 exactly.

With Buffalo’s pass-rush prowess in mind, expect Cincinnati to have a run-heavy game plan out of the game. That’s exactly how the Bengals propelled themselves to a 27-10 win over Buffalo last postseason, racking up 172 yards on the ground, including 105 and a TD from lead back Joe Mix at 5.3 YPC.

The potential for Mixon and company to shred a suspect Buffalo rush defense once again is a big part of why I rolled with the Cincinnati moneyline in my Bills vs Bengals picks, and it’s also a big part of why I expect the first half to speed by with a limited number of possessions.

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BUF vs CIN SGP Picks #2: Josh Allen Under 1.5 TD Passes

Josh Allen has thrown exactly two TD passes in each of his last four games and has gone over 1.5 in six of eight starts this year. But he’s only gone over 1.5 TD passes in one of three road games to date (two at the Patriots, one at the Jets, one at the Commanders).

Meanwhile, the Bengals quietly have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Cincinnati has surrendered just nine TD passes in seven games in 2023 (tied for 11th) while holding opposing quarterbacks to an 81.7 passer rating (8th). They also held Allen to zero TD passes in last year’s playoff game. Take that with a grain of salt as it was played in the snow, but Allen still had 42 pass attempts, and his counterpart Joe Burrow managed a pair of TD passes and a 64% completion percentage in the elements.

January 22, 2023 vs. Bills

The AFC Divisional snow game was one for the books. Let’s look back at our time in Buffalo ❄️ pic.twitter.com/K7Z0ZLDjEA

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) July 18, 2023

 

Bills vs Bengals Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Tee Higgins Under 4.5 Receptions

In six games this season, Higgins has gone over 4.5 receptions just twice and stayed under four times. In fact, in two of his last three games, he didn’t even receive five targets. Going back to last season – including the playoffs – Higgins has stayed under 4.5 receptions in  seven of his last ten. That includes just three catches on four targets for 28 yards against Buffalo in the playoffs last year, albeit in the snow.

My colleague explained why he likes Ja’Marr Chase to go over his receiving yards O/U in the Bills vs Bengals player props – the absence of top Buffalo corner Tre’Davious White playing a big part – and with Chase apt to have another huge game, plus the run-game likely to factor in heavily, there just won’t be many targets left for Higgins.

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