Buccaneers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Predictions for Sunday

Oct 15, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY SportsThe Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions kicks off the NFL Divisional Round schedule on Sunday, Jan. 21Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield are both coming off huge games in the Wild-Card RoundSee a +261 Buccaneers vs Lions same-game parlay for today’s game at Ford Field

After a three-decade hiatus of home playoff games, the Motor City will host its second in as many weeks as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8, 5-4 away, 12-6 ATS) visit the Detroit Lions (13-5, 7-2 home, 12-6 ATS) at Ford Field at 3:00 pm ET.

On the fast track at Ford Field, expect the Lions’ potent offense to have another big day, forcing Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to try to keep pace. Today’s Buccaneers vs Lions same-game parlay is crafted around that exact game script.

Buccaneers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay

The three legs of this Tampa Bay vs Detroit same-game parlay come out to +261 odds. After hitting a +399 Rams/Lions SGP last weekend, I’m now up +9.23 units dating back to the regular season.

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Buccaneers vs Lions SGP Pick #1: Lions Moneyline

Tampa Bay’s 32-9 rout of the Eagles last week was undeniably impressive. Tampa outgained Philadelphia 426 to 276 and didn’t allow the Eagles to convert on a single third down.

The Eagles, of course, were a team in disarray, limping into the postseason losing five of their last six. The Lions are anything but.  They’ve won four of five including last week’s thrilling 24-23 victory over the Rams in which Jared Goff threw for 277 yards and a TD on 81.5% passing (22-of-27).

Goff to LaPorta for the touchdown on 4th down! Lions lead 21-10. #OnePride

📺: #LARvsDET on NBC📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/mKZAWsklkP

— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024

Detroit finished the season rated seventh in the NFL in DVOA (fifth on offense, 13th on defense) compared to Tampa down in 18th (20th on offense, 14th on defense). PFF graded the Lions the fifth-best team in the league while the Bucs were in the bottom quarter of the league (24th).

Tampa did manage to go 5-4 on the road this season, but were just 1-3 on the road against teams that made the playoffs. Detroit also manhandled the Bucs 20-6 in Tampa Bay in Week 6. Detroit is listed as 6.5-point favorites in the NFL odds for the Divisional Round and they deserve it.

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TB vs DET Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Mayfield Over 249.5 Passing Yards

The Lions’ defense has undoubtedly improved from the leaky unit they fielded last season, but the passing defense is still underwhelming. PFF grades Detroit fifth against the run and just 29th in coverage and 16th in pass rush.

Matthew Stafford had a massive 367-yard game last week as he and the Rams tried to play catch-up. Don’t expect Mayfield to reach those heights, but with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside, he’ll find plenty of success against the Lions secondary.

A 50-yard touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to Puka Nacua!! pic.twitter.com/0LZl6VgSI5

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 15, 2024

Mayfield was awful the first time these teams met back in Week 6 (19-of-37 for 206 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. He’s played much better in the latter part of the season, however, throwing for at least 283 yards in four of his past five games (including playoffs).

My colleague listed Mayfield over 260.5 yards as his top pick in the Buccaneers vs Lions props, and I wholeheartedly agree that he’s primed for a big day.

Tampa Bay vs Detroit SGP Pick #3: White Under 53.5 Rushing Yards

The last leg of this Buccaneers vs Lions same-game parlay is somewhat correlated with the first two. With Tampa taking to the air to try to keep pace with Detroit’s offense, Rachaad White and the running game may become an afterthought. White’s rushing total of 53.5 in today’s NFL player props is a touch too high in the circumstances.

Even if Tampa does make an effort to establish the run early on, Detroit has an excellent rush defense. Not only did they rank fifth in rush defense at PFF, as mentioned, they finished the season with the second-fewest total yards allowed on the ground (88.8 YPG) and the third-lowest yards-per-carry (3.7 YPC).

While White averaged 58.3 rushing yards per game in the regulars season, he was held under 54 yards more often than not (nine out of 17 games) and that total is likely to be added to today.

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