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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Chiefs vs. Jaguars.
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NFL Betting Primer: Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars – Spread Line: JAC +3.5
We’ve seen these two teams face off against each other twice last season, with the Chiefs coming away victorious at home by 10 and 7 points. Totals of 47 and 44. Games were totaled at 51 and 52.5. Now on the road, the sportsbooks have made the line even tighter between two of the top teams in the AFC to 3.5 points. Travis Kelce’s status is still TBD, but the Chiefs got back defensive lineman, Chris Jones, to plug the interior. His return will be impactful as the Jaguars could be without star offensive guard, Brandon Scherff after he got hurt in Week 1. And the extra time off coming off a loss works in favor of the Chiefs. As should the return of All-Pro tight end, Travis Kelce.
I don’t envision a scenario where the Jaguars are able to hold the Chiefs offense down, given they were one more Anthony Richardson scramble away from allowing 28 points to a rookie QB in his first start. The Chiefs offense ranked first in points per game on the road last season (33.3). I think the Chiefs easily get to 28 total points. The question is€¦will that be enough to cover the 3.5-point spread versus an improved Jaguars passing game with the addition of Calvin Ridley? Especially given that the Jaguars also can run the football behind the explosive Travis Etienne. Jacksonville showed they are more than happy to run the football when the matchups call for it, indicated by the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate. Now that was in Week 1 versus a rookie QB, where you can be more conservative. Doubt we see them rev up the rushing with Patrick Mahomes moving the ball up and down the field at ease.
Don’t like betting against Andy Reid with extra time to prepare for the Jaguars. However, I am not overly convinced that the Chiefs’ defense will contain Trevor Lawrence with how deep his receiving corps is. But the fact that they were horrible on third downs 3-12 (25%) against a downright atrocious Colts defense has him bolstering my Chiefs pick. KC held the Lions to a 33% third-down conversion rate in Week 1.
I don’t usually do exact game predictions, but this one smells like a 28-24 Chiefs road win. Like the over even with "unders" all the rage.
- My picks: Chiefs -3.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook), Chiefs team total OVER 27.5 points (-102 DraftKings Sportsbook), Over 51.0 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- My props: Zay Jones OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook), Travis Etienne OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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