Oregon State vs Notre Dame Prediction, Preview & Odds – Sun Bowl 2023

Notre Dame’s Christian Gray attempts to intercept a tipped pass during practice at the SAC on Dec. 26, 2023, as they prepare for the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl against Oregon State.The #15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 6-point favorites over the #21 Oregon State Beavers in the Sun Bowl on Friday, December 29Oregon State is 1-4 ATS in the school’s past five gamesNotre Dame is 4-1 SU and ATS over its last five games

The #15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3, 8-3-1 ATS) and the Oregon Beavers (8-4, 6-6 ATS) have a bowl game history. It’s not gone well for the Irish.

Both prior meetings between these two schools came in bowl game appearances. Oregon State beat Notre 38-21 in the 2004 Insight Bowl. Three years earlier, the Beavers whipped the Irish 41-9 in the Fiesta Bowl.

Recent history is of more interest to oddsmakers, who’ve set the Irish as 6-point favorites in the Oregon State vs Notre Dame odds. The Irish are 0-1-1 ATS in those two previous clashes with the Beavers.

Let’s look more deeply look into this Oregon State vs Notre Dame matchup and offer you our pick for this NCAA football bowl game.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame Odds

In the Oregon State vs Notre Dame odds, the Irish are -225 moneyline favorites, giving them a 69.23% implied win probability. The total is set at 41.5 points. Four of Oregon State’s last five games have gone under.

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The Beavers are 10-7 SU all-time in bowl game appearances. That includes a 3-0 win over Pitt in the 2008 Sun Bowl. Notre Dame’s bowl game history stretches back to the 1925 Rose Bowl. The Irish are 20-21 SU in 41 appearances. Notre Dame beat Miami (Fla) 33-17 in the 2010 Sun Bowl.

Kickoff for this game at Sun Bowl Stadium on Friday, December 29 is set for 2:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by CBS.

Beavers vs Fighting Irish Betting Trends

There’s definite uncertainty about this game and that’s spilling over into the college football public betting splits. Spread bettors are loving the underdog Beavers, while moneyline players are going all-in on the favored Irish.

Oregon State is drawing 51% of handle and 65% of bets in the spread splits. This even though the Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games. Notre Dame, 4-1 SU over the last five games, are pulling 100% of handle and 97% of bets in the moneyline splits.

Surprisingly, in a game that will be featuring so many new players in key roles, the over is drawing massive support from the people. It’s getting 94% of handle and 97% of bets in the total action.

Angeli To Lead Irish

Even though they’ll be missing their QB1, the Irish are still the Sun Bowl chalk. Sam Hartman is opting out of the game to prepare for the NFL Draft. In one season at Notre Dame, the Wake Forest transfer threw for 2,689 yards and 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions.

Under center for Notre Dame against Oregon State will be sophomore Steve Angeli. In a mop-up role behind Hartman, Angeli has completed 19 of 25 passes for 272 yards and four touchdowns, while tossing one interception. If Angeli struggles to move the Irish offense, don’t be surprised if Notre Dame hands over the reins of the offense to freshman Kenny Minchey.

Marcus Freeman's message to his Sun Bowl starting QB: "You have to be Steve Angeli. Don’t be Sam Hartman. Don’t be anybody else. Be Steve Angeli."#NDFootball #NotreDame

— Mike BerardinoNDI (@MikeBerardino) December 28, 2023

Two key starters along the OL, LT Joe Alt and RT Blake Fisher, are skipping the game to get ready for the NFL Draft. They’re among 13 Notre Dame players who’ve decided not to suit up.

Notre Dame will also be minus offensive coordinator Gerad Parker. He left to accept the head coaching position at Troy.

Coaching Change For Beavers

Change is also afoot at Oregon State. Head coach Jonathan Smith departed to accept the Michigan State job. Receivers coach Kefense Hynson will be serving as interim head coach for this game.

The Beavers will also be turning to their backup QB, albeit a second-stringer with significant first-string experience. With QB1 DJ Uiagalelei entering the transfer portal, Ben Gulbranson will be under center.

The last time Ben Gulbranson started a Bowl Game for the Beaver!!! #GoBeavs pic.twitter.com/VrGyTRkpRf

— Sidelines – Oregon State🦫 (@SSN_Beavers) December 4, 2023

Gulbranson was 7-1 SU as Oregon State’s starter last season. He would be named MVP of the Las Vegas Bowl. Five other Beavers are opting out of this game.

Protecting Angeli could prove an issue for Notre Dame minus both Irish starting tackles. Oregon State’s defense is tied for ninth in the nation with 36 sacks.

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Oregon State vs Notre Dame Prediction

Considering the disarray and uncertainty on both sides of the football in this game, the best bet here is to go low.

Fade the public and take the under on the total of 41.5 points. Remember, Oregon State’s only previous Sun Bowl appearance was a 3-0 victory.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame Pick: Under 41.5 points (-110)